No new lockdown required in city or state: Committee

New Delhi According to a government-appointed committee appointed by the government, no new lockdown should be imposed at the district or state level to prevent the spread of Kovid-19 unless there is no potential threat to health care facilities. The committee headed by Professor M Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad also claimed that if all protocols are followed, the epidemic can be controlled by early next year.

Mathematical model designed for Kovid-19
The ten-member committee conducted a study on “Progress of the Kovid-19 Pandemic in India: Diagnosis and Lockdown Effects”. The committee has developed an evidence-based mathematical model for the growth of Kovid-19. The ‘supermodel’ at the national level is based on various parameters including lockdown time, alternate lockdown scenarios, the effect of migrant workers returning to their homes and the impact of not following safety protocols. The committee said, “If we all follow these protocols, the epidemic can be controlled by keeping infection cases at a minimum by the end of February early next year. We do not yet know about the epidemic how it will behave in particular climates (viruses are generally more active in cold environments). ”

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Protocol will have to be followed
Vidyasagar said, “Therefore, the current personal safety protocols need to be continued, otherwise we may see a rapid increase in cases of infection. No new lockdown should be imposed at the district or state level to prevent the spread of Kovid-19 unless there is a potential threat to health care facilities. “The committee said the upcoming festivals and winter weather increased susceptibility to infection But all activities can be resumed provided proper security protocols are followed.

The committee said that the quick and comprehensive lockdown helped prevent cases from increasing in number and also reduced the burden on the system. The committee said in the report, “The epidemic without lockdown would have badly affected India and by June, the number of cases would have crossed 14 million.” If India had waited till May to implement the lockdown, by June the number of active cases would have been around 5 million. ”

Lockdown works in India
Based on the provisional framework of the analyzes conducted for Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, the committee concluded that labor exodus had little effect on the total number of infections in these states. The committee also said that with the implementation of various security protocols such as wearing masks and following social distance, a comprehensive lockdown was put in place and India faced the corona virus better than many other countries. The committee has recommended that the current personal safety protocol needs to be continued in full, otherwise the country may see a rapid rise in cases of infection.